| | | Russia: The Credible Threat of a Tobin Tax
| | 国际货物贸易法论文
[摘要] the rouble has suddenly weakened in the past few days only a week since our latest research note on russia (taming the rouble, april 15, 2004), it looks like we were right in detecting an important turning point in exchange rate policy and a stronger determination to weaken the rouble. however, while it is perhaps too early to draw definitive conclusions, we may have underestimated the ability of the monetary authorities to weaken the rouble exchange rate even without resorting to significant fx intervention.
the rouble has suddenly weakened in the past few days only a week since our latest research note on russia (taming the rouble, april 15, 2004), it looks like we were right in detecting an important turning point in exchange rate policy and a stronger determination to weaken the rouble. however, while it is perhaps too early to draw definitive conclusions, we may have underestimated the ability of the monetary authorities to weaken the rouble exchange rate even without resorting to significant fx intervention.
the exchange rate movement is consistent with an atmosphere of increased dirigisme … why is the market suddenly heeding the calls of the central bank of russia (cbr)? given the growing clout and interventionism of the administration, the fact that president putin strongly endorsed the goal of limiting the real appreciation of the rouble trade-weighted index (twi) to no more than 7% this year probably played a role.
… but the credible threat of a ‘tobin tax’ is the stick, we think in our view, what gave credibility to the changed rhetoric of the administration and of the cbr is that the market realises that a new legislation on capital controls due to go into effect in june gives the monetary authorities additional ammunition beyond simple fx intervention. the new law envisages the complete lifting of capital controls by january 2007, but in the interim period it allows the cbr to impose, among other things, reserve requirements on short-term capital inflows. if the cbr felt there was a risk of severe fluctuations of the exchange rate, it would be able to implement a ‘tobin tax’. the developments of the past few days seem to suggest that the introduction of reserve requirements might not even be necessary given a ‘credible threat’ of imposing such restrictions.
reduced short-term capital inflows would imply higher domestic rates the degree of success of cbr moral suasion in weakening the rouble is a question of critical importance for monetary policy and the inflation outlook. indeed, if short-term capital inflows decreased sharply, other things being equal, local interest rates would rise and the monetary base would decrease. the effects on broad money supply and credit growth would be probably more limited, as most of the funds borrowed externally by domestic banks appear to end up in deposits at the cbr. even so, higher interest rates would help contain the exuberance of the local financial markets. on the other hand, inflation could be marginally higher due to the weaker exchange rate, though one should also take into account the restraining effect of higher interest rates on domestic demand.
weakening the rouble would not require a further injection of liquidity the key conclusion as regards the local financial markets is that the authorities’ goal of weakening the exchange rate does not necessarily imply massive fx intervention and an explosion in domestic bank liquidity, as some commentators have suggested. if the currency market falls in line with the official view on the rouble, net fx intervention may actually be quite limited going forward.
short-term capital inflows are key to the recent strength of the rouble and its sudden reversal why has moral suasion been so effective? our explanation is that, although the rouble derives its strength from the current account surplus, larger capital inflows were the key factor that pushed it stronger against the dollar in 2003 and early 2004, especially in the form of loans received by local banks and corporations. these inflows gained momentum in 4q 2003 and in 1q. while the low level of dollar interest rates is likely to have played a role, the key factor in our view was the perception among market participants that the rouble was a one-way bet in view of high oil prices. the market also sensed that the cbr was keen to achieve its 8-10% inflation target for this year even at the cost of decreased competitiveness. given the administration’s increased focus on competitiveness and economic growth, this is clearly no longer the case, though the cbr’s mild intervention in support of the dollar in recent days suggests that it wishes to smooth the rouble appreciation.
in light of these considerations, we are adjusting our rouble projections towards weakness. we believe the russian monetary authorities will be able to moderate the inflows of short-term capital over the coming quarters. the weakening in the rouble could also be due to the latest judicial and tax developments concerning oil companies. still, a resumption of capital flight would only add to the case for a weaker exchange rate. we have thus adjusted our rouble exchange rate projections accordingly.
russia: exchange rate forecast
rub (old) rub (new) eur rub basket
current 28.97 28.97 1.19 31.71
jun 04e 28.50 29.30 1.19 32.08
sep 04e 28.00 28.80 1.25 32.40
dec 04e 28.00 29.40 1.20 32.34
mar 05e 27.80 29.00 1.20 31.90
jun 05e 27.60 28.80 1.20 31.68
sep 05e 27.50 28.60 1.20 31.46
dec 05e 27.50 28.50 1.20 31.35
rub basket is 50% rub (rouble/dollar) and 50% eurrub (rouble/euro)
e = morgan stanley research estimates
source: morgan stanley research
（摩根斯坦利全球论坛, riccardo barbieri & alexei khaliouline (london)）
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